Monday 19 April 2010

Matthew 20:16 and Cleggomania polls

If you thought the Evening Standard was getting biblical with it's "Gordon's Ark" headline this morning, I found myself drifting towards the King James Bible when the latest Guardian ICM poll came out later.

For the first time since polling began in 1984 ICM have Labour on third place, having been leapfrogged by the Facebook phenomenon that is Nick Clegg.

The Tories are on 33%, down four, Lib Dems up ten points to 30% and Labour down three points to 28%.

Bizarrely this would leave Labour as the biggest party in Westminster - 0n 275 seats to Conservative 245 with the Libs at the upper limits of what the electoral system allows them on 99 seats.

In the words of that biblical psephologist Matthew - "the last shall be first, and the first last: for many be called, but few chosen".

As I said earlier Labour might think the problem is all the David Cameron's but if Labour is replaced as the anti-Tory party in the UK, what then?

I expect Clegg can do well in the second debate too - just keep the tie on and mention Iraq four or five times and that should see him ride through on this wave. Gordon will be Gordon, of that we can be sure, but what will Cameron choose to do? Attack, as Tebbit wants him to or try to keep relaunching the "big society" idea as he does in tonight's fairly unpersuasive political broadcast.

None of the party strategists know where this will end up - that's the really exciting part about it. I don't know - air travel has come to an end, Ross County are in the Scottish Cup final, Nick Clegg is topping the polls - I'm going to wake up soon aren't I?

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